基于复杂网络理论的电商供应链风险预测方法研究

On E-Commerce Supply Chain Risk Forecast Method Based on Complex Network Theory

由于目前已有风险预测方法未能考虑供应链风险因素的统计问题,导致预测结果可信度下降,预测费用增加.为了有效解决上述问题,提出一种基于复杂网络理论的电商供应链风险预测方法.从复杂网络、节点重要性角度分析单个企业对网络的影响,从供应链风险等视角全面统计供应链风险因素.通过复杂网络节点重要性理论,结合统计分析获取对应的供应链风险诱因小类,组建电商供应链风险预测体系.将企业节点重要性预测结果作为电商供应链风险预测的权重系数,采用熵权法确定权重,结合多层模糊评价法组建电商供应链风险预测模型,有效实现电商供应链风险预测.仿真实验结果表明,本文方法能够有效提升预测结果的可信度,降低预测费用.

Because the existing methods fail to consider the statistical problem of supply chain risk factors,the credibility of the prediction results decreases and the forecast cost increases.In order to effectively solve the above problems,combined with complex network theory,a risk prediction method of e-commerce supply chain based on complex network theory has been proposed.From the perspective of complex network and node importance,this paper analyzes the impact of single enterprise on the network,and makes a comprehensive statistics of supply chain risk factors from the perspective of supply chain risk.At the same time,through the complex network node importance theory,combined with statistical analysis to obtain the corresponding supply chain risk inducement subclass,establish e-commerce supply chain risk prediction system.Taking the prediction results of enterprise node importance as the weight coefficient of e-commerce supply chain risk prediction,the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight,and the multi-level fuzzy evaluation method is combined to establish the e-commerce supply chain risk prediction model,which effectively realizes the e-commerce supply chain risk prediction.Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the credibility of the prediction results and reduce the prediction cost.