基于层次分析法的教育考试舆情预警模型构建及案例运用

Model Construction and Case Application of Early-Warning of Public Opinion in Education Examinations Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

基于层次分析法,结合网络舆情"四阶段"演变模型,抽取教育考试舆情监测体系的相关指标,设计由萌芽指数、发展指数和态度指数构成的教育考试舆情预警模型,并对各指标量化和权重确值,划分舆情预警级别,进行案例实证分析。萌芽指数旨在确定舆情的初始性质和潜在风险,发展指数和态度指数旨在洞察舆情的传播态势和态度情况。该模型为教育考试网络舆情的发展状态判断、网络态度判断和风险预警判断提供了客观方法。

Based on analytic hierarchy process,and combined with the“four stages”classical model of the online public opinion,the study extracts relevant indexes of the public opinion monitoring index system of education examination,and designs the early-warning model of public opinion in education examinations,which contains germination index,development index and attitude index.The germination index is composed of content influence degree,content audio-visual degree,first responder influence and first responder activity degree.The development index is composed of media coverage,media speed,media popularity,audience popularity and audience breadth.The attitude index is composed of audience attitude,media attitude and opinion leader attitude.The weight of each index is determined,the early-warning level of public opinion is divided and the case study is carried out.The germination index aims to determine the initial nature and potential risks of public opinion,while the development index and the attitude index aim to gain insight into the spread trend and attitude situation of public opinion.The model provides an objective method to judge the development state,attitude and risk warning of online public opinion in education examinations.