江苏省茶叶产量年景发生概率及其变化趋势分析

Analysis of the annual occurrence probability and trend of tea yield in Jiangsu Province

以江苏省1980-2018年茶叶单产资料为基础,利用HP滤波法对茶叶产量进行分离,对相对气象产量进行产量年景分级,分成丰产年、平产年和歉产年三个年景,分析产量年景发生概率及其变化趋势。结果表明:江苏省茶叶丰产年发生概率26.8%,平产年概率44.5%,歉产年概率28.7%,平产年发生概率呈上升趋势,歉产年和丰产年发生概率呈下降趋势。未来江苏省茶叶产量年景以平产年为主,茶叶生产风险持续降低。

Based on the yield per unit area data of tea from 1980 to 2018 in Jiangsu Province,HP filter method was used to analyze the tea yield,in which the relative meteorological yield was classified into three grades,i.e.,abundant year,normal year and lean year.The results showed that the probability of occurrence of abundant year,normal year and lean year of tea production in Jiangsu province was 26.8%,44.5%and 28.7%respectively.In the future,the annual yield trend of tea in Jiangsu province will be dominated by the normal year,and the risk of tea production will be continuously reduced.