稳健估计时间序列法在风功率预测中的应用研究

Application of Robust Estimation Time Series Method in Wind Power Prediction

为了解决风力发电不稳定问题,提出风功率预测模型,通过预测风功率数据变化情况,为风力发电调控操作提供参考依据。其中,风功率预测模型建立在时间序列基础上,引入高阶AR模型进行设计。应用测量结果表明,稳健估计预测模型数列还原性能较高,预测误差在10%以下,符合风功率预测要求。

To solve the unstable problem of wind power generation,a wind power prediction model was proposed to provide a reference for wind power control operation by predicting the variation of wind power data.Among them,the wind power prediction model was established on the basis of time series,and the high-order AR model was introduced for design.The measurement results showed that the robust estimation prediction model had a high reduction performance,and the prediction error was less than 10%,which met the requirements of wind power prediction.