数字经济、产业升级与高质量发展——基于中介效应和面板门槛效应实证研究

Digital economy,industrial upgrading and high-quality development——An empirical study based on intermediary effect and panel threshold effect

基于2000—2017年省级面板数据,实证研究数字经济、产业升级和中国高质量发展间的关系。研究发现:首先,数字经济的提升对高质量发展有显著的正向影响。其次,产业结构合理化作为中介变量强化了数字经济对高质量发展的推动作用,产业结构高级化无明显的影响,这种中介效应还存在区域异质性,东部地区中介效应显著,中西部地区无明显影响。最后,为进一步探究数字经济对高质量发展的影响,通过面板门槛模型探讨二者之间的非线性关系,结果表明:当数字经济处于较低水平时,会阻碍经济发展质量;反之,对经济高质量发展有显著的强化作用。

Based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,the paper empirically studies the relationship among the digital economy,industrial upgrading and high-quality development in China.The study finds that:Firstly,the improvement of the digital economy has a significant positive impact on high-quality development.Secondly,the rationalization of industrial structure as an intermediary variable strengthens the promotion of the digital economy on high-quality development,and advanced industrial structure has no obvious influence.This intermediary effect also has regional heterogeneity,the intermediary effect is significant in the eastern region,and there is no obvious effect in the central and western regions.Finally,in order to further explore the impact of the digital economy on high-quality development,the non-linear relationship between the two is discussed through the panel threshold model.The results show that when the digital economy is at a low level,it will hinder the quality of economic development.In contrast,high-quality economic development has a significant strengthening effect.