中国农业可持续发展水平多尺度时空演变特征

Evolution in the Spatio-temporal Pattern of Agricultural Sustainable Development Level in China Based on Multi-scales

农业可持续发展时空格局演变研究有助于明确不同时段、不同地理单元在国家农业可持续发展战略中的功能与地位。为揭示时空演变特征及其动态演化过程,采用主成分分析法对2007—2018年中国农业可持续发展水平进行测度。结果表明:(1)系统指数对比上,生态环境指数略高于社会经济指数,属优质协调发展类;资源利用与居民需求子系统指数差异较大,属失调衰退类。(2)全国尺度上,农业可持续发展综合指数的年际变化较大,均值为0.28,以2%·a^(-1)的幅度下降,总体以2014年为分界点呈M型演变模式。空间上向西南—东南方向演进,东西移动距离大于南北移动距离,分布范围呈西南缩小、东南扩张的态势。(3)区域尺度上,分区整体呈现出随可持续发展功能强度减弱,其变化幅度梯度递减的演化特征。(4)省域尺度上,综合指数表现出自西向东衰减的变化趋势,西南、西北省份两极分化,中、东部省份差异较小。研究结果为开展农业可持续发展规划提供理论依据,为区域制定差异化农业可持续发展策略提供科学依据。

Exploring the spatio-temporal evolution of the agricultural sustainable development is helpful to clarify the functions and status of different geographical units in different periods in the national agricultural sustainable development strategy. In order to reveal the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution and its dynamic evolution process, the principal component analysis was used to measure the sustainable development level of agriculture in China from 2007 to 2018. The results were followed:(1) Compared with the system indexes, the ecological environment index was slightly higher than the socio-economic index, which belonged to the category of high-quality coordinated development. There was a great difference between the subsystem index of resource utilization and resident requirement, which belonged to the disorder and decline category.(2) On the national scale, the comprehensive index of agricultural sustainable development varied greatly between years, with an average value of 0.28, decreasing by 2%·a^(-1). Taking 2014 as the dividing point, it presented an M-shaped evolution pattern. It was spatial evolved to the southwest-southeast direction, the moving distance from east to west was greater than that from north to south, and the distribution range was shrinking in the southwest and expanding in the southeast.(3) On the regional scale, the whole partition showed the evolutionary characteristics that the change amplitude gradient decreased with the weakening of sustainable development function.(4) On the provincial scale, the composite index showed the variation trend of attenuation from west to east, with the southwest and northwest provinces polarized, while the middle and eastern provinces had little difference. The present research provided theoretical basis for developing agricultural sustainable development planning, and scientific basis for regional formulation of differentiated agricultural sustainable development strategies.