基于时间序列的郑州市人均生产总值的预测

The Prediction of GDP Per Capita in Zhengzhou City Based on Time Series

随着社会经济的不断发展、生活水平的提高及人口的增加,通过GDP这一宽泛的指标来反映一个地区经济的发展状况是不准确的。由于GDP不能很准确地反映平均每个人的生活水平,而人均GDP则能弥补GDP的这点不足。因为人均GDP=总产出/总人口,它是一个既考虑经济总量大小又考虑人口数量因素的综合性指标,所以常常用来了解和把握一个国家或者地区的宏观经济运行状况、发展水平和人民生活水准。所以论文利用ARIMA模型对人均生产总值进行短期的预测。

With the continuous development of social economy,the improvement of living standards and the increase of population,it is inaccurate to reflect the economic development status of a region through the broad indicator of GDP.Because GDP does not accurately reflect the living standard of the average person,GDP per capita can make up for this deficiency of GDP.Because GDP per capita=total output/total population,it is a comprehensive indicator that takes into account both the size of the total economy and the factor of the population,so it is often used to understand and grasp the macroeconomic performance status,development level and standard of living of people in a country or region.Therefore,the paper uses the ARIMA model to make a short-term prediction of GDP per capita.