基于后果概率估计的地铁集群火灾风险评估

Fire risk evaluation of subway group based on consequence probability estimation

有很多大型企事业单位包含了火灾风险特征相似的多个建筑或场所,可将这些建筑或场所定义为“集群”。目前,尚缺乏集群火灾风险评估的相关研究。为了降低集群火灾风险及提升决策者对于集群火灾风险的认知和重视,需探讨集群在其全寿命周期内发生火灾的可能性。针对集群火灾风险评估,建立了后果概率估计法,即“通过对评估对象火灾后不同维度后果(重伤人数、死亡人数、直接财产损失)的概率进行估计,并参照火灾风险值基准来计算该评估对象的火灾风险值”。通过邀请5名专家运用后果概率估计法评估了长沙地铁集群(99座车站,其中有12座换乘站)的火灾风险。结果表明:长沙地铁的火灾风险值为70.45,为中风险等级。

Many large enterprises and institutions contain multiple buildings or places with similar fire risk characteristics,which can be defined as“group”.At present,there is still a lack of study on evaluation of group fire risk.To reduce group fire risk and enhance the awareness and attention on group fire risk of decision makers,the fire possibility of groups was discussed.For evaluating group fire risk,the consequence probability estimation method was established based on estimating probabilities of different ranges of fire injuries,fire deaths and fire direct losses,and calculating fire risk value by referring to the fire risk value benchmark.Five experts were invited to evaluate the fire risk of the group of 99 subway stations(including 12 transfer stations)in Changsha using consequence probability estimation method.The results show that its fire risk value is 70.45,which can be defined as“medium risk level”.