基于多态模糊贝叶斯网络的工程完工可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of engineering completion based on polymorphic fuzzy Bayesian network

工程进度作为工程项目的三大目标之一,对项目的效益起着重大的影响,因此很有必要对建设工程进度的完工概率进行分析。由于施工过程中的各种不确定性,每个工序会存在多种完工情况,导致其难以被预测。为了解决上述问题,本文提出一种基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态完工可靠性分析模型推算网络计划完工概率,并将该模型应用于实例中,对网络计划进行推理分析,从而验证了模型的可行性和有效性,研究结果可为工程管理者在进度风险决策方面提供参考。

As one of the three major goals of the project, the project schedule has a significant impact on the benefit of the project. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the completion probability of the construction project schedule. Due to various uncertainties in the construction process, there will be multiple completion conditions for each process, making it difficult to predict.In order to solve the above problems, a multi-state completion reliability analysis model based on fuzzy Bayesian networks is proposed in this article to calculate the probability of completion of the network plan, the model is applied to an example to perform a reasoning analysis on the network plan, thus verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.The research results can provide a reliable reference for project managers to make progress risk decisions.