中美贸易摩擦的结构效应分析

Analysis of the Structural Effect of China-U.S.Trade Frictions

本文主要利用贸易一般均衡模型反事实模拟量化分析中美可能的全面贸易摩擦对两国出口结构和产业结构的影响。结果表明:中美传统出口优势行业在中美贸易摩擦中受到的负面冲击比较大,中国出口集中度下降,而美国的变化不大;中美全面贸易摩擦将会导致中国制造业的产出份额减少,而初级产业和服务业产出份额增加;美国初级产业的产出份额减少,制造业和服务业的产出份额增加;受关税冲击较为严重的制造业产出份额的减少会导致相关联的生产性服务业产出份额减少。未来中国要增强战略定力和战略自信,积极利用国际规则应对国际贸易摩擦;同时,从产业链、供应链以及创新等方面进一步深化供给侧改革,促进产业结构优化升级。

This article mainly uses trade general equilibrium model counterfactual simulation to quantitatively analyze the impact of possible comprehensive trade friction between China and the United States on the export structure and industrial structure of the two countries.The results show that the traditional export advantages of China and the United States have suffered relatively large negative impacts in the China-US trade frictions,China’s export concentration rate has declined,while the United States has not changed much;The total trade friction between China and the United States will lead to a decrease in the output share of China’s manufacturing industry,while the output share of primary industries and service industries has increased;Reduction in the share of manufacturing output that is more severely impacted by tariffs,which will lead to a decrease in the output share of the related producer services.In the future,China should strengthen its strategic focus and strategic self-confidence,and actively use international rules to deal with international trade frictions,meanwhile,further deepen the supply-side reforms in terms of industrial chain,supply chain and innovation,and promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.