RCP情景下内蒙古黄河流域径流预估及其对水资源的影响

Runoff Estimate and Its Impact on Water Resources in Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia under RCP scenarios

根据内蒙古黄河流域内72个国家气象站观测的1961—2005年和区域气候模式CCLM模拟的1961—2100年的气温和降水数据,采用BP人工神经网络模型,预估分析3种RCP情景下头道拐水文站2011—2100年流量变化,评估未来气候变化对流域水资源的可能影响。结果表明:①2011—2100年内蒙古黄河流域气温升高,降水变化不明显,年平均流量呈减少趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景分别减少3.6%、2.7%和23.4%。②未来春季流量以增加为主;夏季在不同情景的变化趋势不一致;秋季在21世纪50年代前以增加为主,之后以减少为主;冬季则以减少为主。③未来流域可利用水资源呈减少趋势,尤其夏季水资源的供需矛盾加剧,以及径流季节分配发生变化,可能产生更大的春季径流。

According to the temperature and precipitation data observed by 72national meteorological stations from 1961to 2005and simulated by the regional climate model CCLM from 1961to 2005in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia,the BP neural network model is used to predict and analyze the runoff changes in the Toudaoguai hydrological station under three RCP scenarios from 2011to 2100,so to evaluate the possible impact of future climate change on water resources in the basin.The results show that:(1)From 2011to 2100,the temperature in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia would increase,but the precipitation would not change significantly,and the annual average runoff show a decreasing trend.Corresponding to the scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,the decrease would be by 3.6%,2.7%and 23.4%,respectively.(2)In the future,the spring runoff would mainly increase;in summer,the trends of runoff change in different scenarios would be inconsistent;in autumn,the runoff would mainly increase before the 2050sand then decrease mainly;in winter,the runoff would mainly decrease.(3)In the future,the available water resources in the basin would decrease,and especially the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources would intensify in summer.The seasonal distribution of runoff would change,which might result in greater spring runoff.