江苏区域格网加权平均温度线性模型研究

Research on weighted mean temperature liner model of Jiangsu regional grid

针对建立区域加权平均温度线性模型的问题,该文提出了将ERA5再分析数据和无线探空数据结合的方法,利用线性回归方法建立单因子和多因子模型,实现对江苏及周边地区的加权平均温度建模。对于有探空站点分布的ERA5格网区域,利用探空数据对ERA5建立的线性Tm模型进行修正,对于无探空站分布的ERA5格网区域使用江苏及周边区域整体修正系数对Tm进行修正。根据2018年数据进行验证,结果表明,本文所建立的单因子模型精度与之相当甚至略优,建立双因子模型的精度提高最大可达10.52%,证明了利用ERA5再分析资料和无线电探空建立江苏区域Tm模型的适用性。

In view of the problem of establishing a linear model of regional weighted average temperature,this paper proposed a method of combining ERA5 reanalysed data with sounding data,and a single-factor and multi-factor model was established by linear regression method to model the weighted average temperature in Jiangsu and surrounding areas.For regions with sounding stations,the linear Tm model established by ERA5 was modified by sounding data.For regions without sounding stations,the linear Tm model established by ERA5 was modified by using the overall correction coefficient of Jiangsu and surrounding areas.Based on the 2018 data,the results showed that the accuracy was equivalent or even slightly better,and the accuracy of double-factor model up to 10.52%higher,which proved the applicability of establishing Jiangsu regional Tm model by using ERA5 reanalysis data and radio sounding.