基于ANP和模糊聚类的军人家属风险研究

Research into Military Family Risk Based on ANP and Fuzzy Clustering

军人家属风险是因军人履行职责而承担的连带风险,是军人风险的重要组成部分。军人家属风险管理状况关系到军队的稳定性。由于军人家属风险属性上具备一定的模糊性,当前缺乏规范的理论指导和实践管理经验。文章尝试通过构建ANP模型,首先分析影响军人风险的因子指标及权重,再以此为依据,针对军人家属风险采用模糊聚类法与典型的人身风险、财产风险和责任风险进行聚类,以期寻求最适宜的类别划分,将典型风险的成熟管理模式和经验借鉴到军人家属风险领域,并提出相应的管理建议。研究发现,意外伤害风险、住房保障风险等13项指标是军人家属风险的主要影响因素;军人家属风险在阈值0.95的水平上与责任风险聚为同一类型;构建以军人家属风险为对象,以军人家属社保和住房为重点内容,军队保险、商业保险和军人互助保险三位一体的责任保险体系,是完善军人家属风险管理的关键所在。

The risk of military family members is an important part of military risk.Risk management is related to the stability of the army.There is an ambiguity in the risk attribute of military family members.At present,there is no standardized theoretical guidance and practical management experience.This paper tries to analyze the factor and weight of the risk factors of military personnel by constructing the ANP model,and uses the fuzzy clustering method to cluster the risk of military family members with the typical personal risk,property risk and responsibility risk,in order to find the most suitable classification and reach the mature management model of the typical risk,and put forward corresponding management suggestions.The study finds that 13 indexes,such as the risk of accidental injury and the risk of housing security,constitute the main factors of the military risk.The risk of military family members is the same type as the risk of responsibility at the level of 0.95.We take the risk of military family members as the object,and the family members’social security and housing security as the key content.The three liability insurance system constitute the military insurance,and the commercial insurance and the military mutual assistance insurance is the key to improve the risk management of military families.