基于区间直觉模糊数和灰色关联的输油站场安全性评估

Safety Evaluation of Oil Station Based on Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number and Grey Correlation

输油站场所涉及的设施及附属部件较多、且多种工艺流程之间相对独立又相互联系,为降低安全评估难度,通过风险区块划分原则将输油站场分为了压力管道区、清管器收发区、阀组区、储罐区等8大风险区块,基于认识的不确定性,从支持、反对和犹豫三方面的区间直觉模糊数表述专家的评判信息,并改进了一种考虑风险偏好的区间记分函数(p-α计分函数),并从其工作经验、知识水平程度以及从众心理程度三方面进行了量化分析;且在单一赋权法的基础上,考虑了主观因素和客观因素对评价结果的影响,从最优关联系数和最劣关联系数两方面综合确定了站场各风险区块的安全风险系数,并与传统记分函数的结果进行了比较,其评价结果符合实际情况,该方法为输油站场的安全管理工作提供了有益参考。

In view of the fact that there are many facilities and accessory parts involved in the oil transmission station place,as well as a variety of technological processes independent but meanwhile interrelated,the oil transmission station site is divided into eight risk blocks based on the principle of risk block division,such as pressure pipe zone,pigging receiver and launcher zone(pipeline pig transceiving zone),valve group zone,tank zone and etc.Considering the uncertainty of knowledge,the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers of support,oppose and hesitation are used for expressing interval judgment information of experts and has carried out the quantitative analysis of conformity from the degree of work experience,knowledge level and group psychology.The yard security risk coefficients of each risk blocks are determined comprehensively on the basis of a single method,considering the subjective factors and objective factors influence on the evaluation results,the optimal correlation coefficient and the worst correlation coefficient and are compared with the traditional scoring function which verifies the feasibility and the practicability of the evaluation mode.