中国旅游业碳排放脱钩效应及影响因素研究

Decoupling Effect and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in China′s Tourism Industry

以中国30个省域为研究对象,采用Tapio脱钩模型测算2008-2017年旅游业碳排放脱钩指数,结合ESDA和LMDI方法,对旅游业碳排放脱钩的时空格局演变及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:中国旅游业碳排放脱钩指数整体处于弱脱钩状态,在0.4380~0.8758之间波动,碳排放脱钩指数分布不均衡,脱钩水平表现出“东高西低”的空间分布格局;旅游业碳排放脱钩指数呈显著负相关,但空间分布的集聚程度较低;随着时间推移,空间集聚程度有所提高,其中,H-H类型的省域集中分布在中部地区,L-L类型省域数量较少,呈零星分布;技术效应、游客规模效应分别是促进和抑制旅游业碳排放脱钩的主导因素,能源结构效应表现为先抑制后促进的作用,经济效应的影响较小。最后针对中国旅游业碳排放脱钩现状提出相关应对措施,以期为制定科学的减排政策提供决策依据。

Taking 30 provinces and cities in China as the research objects,the Tapio′s basic model was used to calculate the carbon emission decoupling index of tourism industry from 2008 to 2017.On this basis,the ESDA and LMDI methods were used to explore the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of carbon emission decoupling index and its influencing factors of tourism industry.The results showed that:1)The overall carbon emission decoupling index of tourism industry in China was in a weak status,and showed the fluctuation between 0.4380~0.8758.The distribution of the carbon emission decoupling index of tourism industry was unbalanced and the spatial distribution pattern of decoupling level was high in the east and low in the west.2)The carbon emission decoupling index of tourism industry in China showed a significant negative correlation,but the correlation was not strong.And the agglomeration degree has been strengthen over time.The provinces and cites of H-H type were concentrated in middle region,the number of provinces and cites of L-L type were small and showed a sporadic distribution.3)The technology effect and tourist scale effect were the main factors which promoted and restrained the carbon emission decoupling index of tourism industry respectively.The effect of energy structure had the function of restraining first and then promoting on the carbon emission decoupling index of tourism industry.The impact of economy effect was small.Finally,based on the current situation of carbon emission decoupling in China′s tourism industry,the corresponding development suggestions were put forward to providing a basis for formulating scientific emission reduction policies.