家庭结构转变与生活能源消费——基于粤港澳大湾区的经验研究

Household Structure Transition and Residential Energy Consumption:Based on the Experience of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

利用公开数据,对粤港澳大湾区的平均家庭规模和家庭规模结构的变动趋势进行预测,并将预测结果用于生活能源消费变动影响因素的分解分析。采用的技术方法一定程度上克服了小区域家庭结构分析数据难以获得的问题。研究发现,粤港澳大湾区平均家庭规模和家庭规模结构的变动趋势具有内在规律性,表现出1、2人户占比上升,3、4人户为主,5、6人户占比下降的家庭结构变化特征;1人户和2人户占比的上升是生活能源消费增长的主要家庭因素,其贡献率之和达到25%左右;人口因素和家庭因素的变化有其自身的惯性,对于生活能源消费的增长具有刚性作用,在趋势估计情景下,人口因素和家庭因素的贡献率之和已经超过了消费水平的贡献率。大湾区能源安全和能源转型相关政策的制定,应该充分考虑家庭结构变化的潜在影响。

This paper uses publicly available data sources to forecast the trend of the average household size and household size structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA),and uses the forecast results for attribution analysis of changes in residential energy consumption.The technical route of this paper overcomes the difficulty of data availability in the analysis of household structure in small areas to some extent.The study finds that the trend of changes in average household size and household size structure in GBA has inherent regularity,showing the characteristics of 1&2 person households increasing,3&4 person households mainly,and 5&6 person households decreasing.The increase of the proportion of 1&2 person households is the main household factor of the growth of residential energy consumption,and its contribution rate reaches about 25%.The changes in population and household have their own inertia,which has a rigid effect on the growth of residential energy consumption.In the trend estimation scenario,the sum of the contributions of population and household factors has exceeded that of consumption level.The policies related to energy security and energy transition in GBA should take into account the potential impact of changes in the household structure.