基于G1法的海外铁路项目风险评价方法研究

Risk Assessment Method of Overseas Railway Projects Based on G1 Method

为了提高海外铁路项目风险评估和项目管理水平,解决“一带一路”倡议下铁路“走出去”的技术难题,建立了海外铁路项目风险评价指标体系和多级评价模型。首先,根据层次分析法的原理,按照项目风险来源性质的不同,建立了由5个1级指标和15个2级指标组成的海外铁路项目风险评价指标体系;其次,利用G1法对专家关于指标重要程度的排序意见进行集结,计算得到指标的权重;然后,通过将各风险指标的定性评价划分为5个等级,并对各等级进行定量赋值,建立了海外铁路项目风险多级评价模型;最后,利用委内瑞拉迪阿铁路进行实例分析。实例分析结果表明:迪阿铁路项目的综合风险达到6.02,属于较高风险,评估计算结果与实际相符,从而验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

In order to improve the risk assessment and project management level of overseas railway projects and solve the technical difficulties of the railway“going global”under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative,the risk assessment indicator system and multi-level evaluation model of overseas railway projects are established.Firstly,according to the principle of hierarchical analysis method and different natures of project risk sources,a risk evaluation indicator system for overseas railway projects is established,which consists of 5 Level-1 indicators and 15 Level-2 indicators.Secondly,the G1 method is applied to collect the opinions of experts on the prioritization and calculate the weight of indicators.Then,the qualitative evaluation of each risk indicator is divided into five grades and each grade is quantitatively assigned to establish a multi-level risk evaluation model for overseas railway projects.Finally,the Tinaco-Anaco railway of Venezuela is taken as an example for analysis.The analysis result shows that the comprehensive risk of Tinaco-Anaco Railway Project reaches 6.02,which is a high risk.The evaluation and calculation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the effectiveness and practicability of the model.