基于回收期的科技创新项目决策模型分析

Science and Technology Innovation Project Decision Model Based on Payback Criterion

回收期方法是一种常用的评价方法.本文通过实物期权思想,对在不确定性下的科技创新项目,论证了回收期方法是合理的,通过本文的计算分析可知,较短的回收期隐含着较少的等待价值,也隐含着较高的单位资本回报.因此,利用回收期方法评价科技创新项目,不仅能得出与NPV方法评价的同样结论,而且还给投资者更多的信息,如几年之内可望收回投资.这对于资本不太雄厚的投资者来说更具有实际的意义,而对于资本雄厚的投资者也提供了能获得更多回报的投资决策评价方法.

The payback Criterion is a commonly observed instrument. By using the real option approach to science and technology innovation project under uncertainty in the paper, we show that it would be rational for the investor to use the payback criterion as a rule of thumb, because a shorter payback period indicates lower value of waiting option and implies higher returns of unit capital. So using the payback criterion to science and technology innovation project not only come to the same conclusion as using the strategy net-present-values approach, but also takes much information. For example, the investment may be paid back within a few years. It may be of momentous current significance for the investor without abundant funds, and it may also provide an investment decision evaluation method that can get more returns.