大国关系及美国大选对全球局势的影响:俄罗斯智库与媒体看法

The Relationship between Big Powers and Impact of the US Presidential Election on Global Situation:Views from Russian Think Tanks and Media

俄罗斯智库与媒体肯定当前世界秩序处于重大变革时期,特朗普外交政策以及新冠肺炎疫情都给世界带来了巨大改变,同时俄罗斯自身还面临着经济社会发展和周边国家关系等问题,需要以“新思维”来看待和解决。不过,俄罗斯官方不完全认可“新冷战”说法。俄罗斯智库与媒体看到,至少在中短期内,中美矛盾将是世界主要矛盾,俄罗斯可以利用中美竞争谋求发展。如果面临两极格局必须做出选择,对俄罗斯而言更优选择是与中国结盟。从美国民主党对俄罗斯的传统政策以及拜登对普京及俄罗斯的态度看,美国大选结果对俄罗斯不是很有利,但无论特朗普当选还是拜登当选,美国外交政策的总体方向都不会有原则性改变。对于世界格局,俄罗斯智库判断有多种发展趋向,俄力主多极世界,并将努力推动这一局面的形成。

In Russia,think tanks and media believe that the current world is experiencing significant changes,especially affected by Trump's diplomacy and the Covid-19 epidemic.For Russia,it also faces its own problems including socio-economic development and relations with the neighboring countries,which should be resolved with"new thinking".Nevertheless,they refute the idea of"new cold war".Russian think tanks and media argue that at least in the short to medium term,competitions between China and US will be the world's main conflicts,which can be utilized by Russia to booster its own development.If Russia has to pick one side,the better option is to form an alliance with China.Given the attitudes of the US Democrats and Biden towards Putin and Russia,the result of the US presidential election is not favorable to Russia.But no matter Trump or Biden is elected,no fundamental changes will take place in the main principle and direction of the US'diplomacy.For the future world order,Russian think tanks believe that there are many potential directions and Russia strongly advocates a multi-polar world and will work hard to promote its formation.