从“北溪-2”项目看德俄关系及俄美欧三方博弈

Analysis on the Germany-Russia Relations and the Trilateral Game of Russia,US and Europe based on the Nord Stream 2 Program

作为两个重要的地区大国,德国与俄罗斯的关系对彼此和欧洲都有着重要影响。在双边关系中,能源因素因其对国民经济生产的决定性意义长期发挥着“稳定器”的作用。2018年9月,由德俄牵头,法国、奥地利与荷兰合资建造的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目正式动工铺设。该项目将使输往欧洲的俄罗斯天然气绕开乌克兰,经过波罗的海海底直接连通德俄两国,德国由此成为俄罗斯天然气最重要的转运国。此举虽然在双边层面上保证了德俄的能源经济安全,但在多边层面却招致欧盟、美国等多方反对。因担心会进一步加深对俄罗斯能源的依赖,欧盟委员会及中东欧国家欲诉诸法律对该项目施以约束;美国在制裁项目企业的同时转而向波兰、乌克兰等国出口液化天然气,在利用政治机遇抢占欧洲市场的同时试图制衡俄罗斯的影响力。在多方力量博弈中,德国需要在平衡俄美欧关系中付出更多努力。

As two major regional powers,the relationship between Germany and Russia significantly affects the two countries and Europe.Regarding bilateral relations,energy has long played a role of"stabilizer"due to its significance in national economic production.In September 2018,the construction of Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline,which is led by Germany and Russia,and invested by France,Austria and the Netherlands has been officially started.This project will enable the gas from Russia bypass Ukraine and directly exported to Germany through the bottom of the Baltic Sea.Accordingly,Germany will become the most important country of transshipment for Russian natural gas.Although this project guarantees the energy and economic security of Germany and Russia,it has attracted oppositions from the EU and US.With the fear of deepening dependence on Russian energy,the European Commission and Central and Eastern European countries resort to impose restrictions on the project.The US has started sanctions on project companies and exported LNG to Poland,Ukraine and other countries.In a multi-party political game,Germany needs to make more efforts to balance its relationship with Russia,the US,and Europe.