COVID-19疫情期间谣言传播的时空分异机制与治理对策

Spatio-temporal differentiation mechanism and governance measures of rumors spreading during the COVID-19 epidemic

基于新冠疫情期间的谣言数据,综合运用文本分析、统计分析与空间分析等方法探究其基本传播特征,揭示其时空分异规律,进而探究其治理对策。结果表明:①疫情期间谣言内容方式的传播以文本为主,且主要与确诊病例和具体事件相关,微信为其主要传播平台。②谣言产生时间存在较大不确定性和波动性;部分谣言与热点舆情事件相关,传播周期较短;且与事件相关的谣言大多存在延迟现象。③谣言的空间分布不均衡,不存在显著的空间自相关,主要集中于东南沿海地区,与疫情状况和人口分布呈现正相关。④运用拉斯韦尔线性传播框架探索了疫情期间谣言传播的时空分异机制,并将谣言传播分为形成期、暴发期及衰退期,进而提出针对性的谣言治理对策。

As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads across the country,rumors are emerging after that.If we don′t manage it,it may harm the prevention and control of the epidemic.This paper analyzes the rumor data of COVID-19 epidemic to explore its basic spreading characteristics.And based on the text analysis,statistical analysis,spatial analysis and other methods,this paper analyzes the rules of spatial-temporal differentiation to study the measures of rumor management.The results show that:①During the outbreak,most rumors spread in the form of text.And they are mainly associated with confirmed cases and specific events with WeChat as the main spreading platform.②The generation time of rumors has a large uncertainty and fluctuation.And some rumors are related to hot events and public opinions.Besides,the spreading cycle is short.In most cases,there may be a certain time delay between the occurrence of rumor and event.③The spatial distribution of rumors is unbalanced,mainly concentrated on the Southeast coastal areas.Besides,it is positively correlated with the epidemic situation and population,but there is no significant spatial autocorrelation.④The linear transmission framework of Lasswell was used to explore the rumor propagation mechanism during the epidemic and the rumor propagation is divided into the formation period,outbreak period and recession period.Based on the above study,this paper also puts forward some reasonable suggestions for the rumor governance such as joint governance of platforms to promote the openness of government information,improving the technology to find rumors faster and improving the overall quality of the audience.