2021年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,January 2021

目的评估2021年1月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计2021年1月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较2020年12月有所上升或保持相近水平。境外新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情仍将呈现非常高水平流行态势,我国境内将同时面临本土传播疫情扩散和境外输入疫情导致本土传播风险,还可能面临春节大规模人员流动潜在引起疫情迅速扩散的极端情形;但如果各地做好监测,及时发现隔离感染者并做好密切接触者的完整追踪管理,则疫情发生本土大规模流行可能性低。季节性流感将继续保持低水平流行态势,人感染动物流感的散发病例仍将继续出现。诺如病毒病在寒假前将处于暴发较高水平。非职业性一氧化碳中毒也会在1月达到年度高峰。结论需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,一般关注季节性流感、人感染动物流感、诺如病毒病和非职业性一氧化碳中毒。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in January 2021.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results It is expected that the public health emergencies in January 2021 will increase or maintain a similar level compared with that in December 2020.The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outside China will continue to spread at a very high level.China will face both risks of spread from the ongoing local transmission and the imported sources from overseas,and also might face the extreme situation of the rapid spreading caused by the massive migration of people returning home before the Spring Festival.However,if the capacity of case detection and isolation,contact tracing and management could be fully maintained or enhanced,the possibility of local large-scale outbreak would be very low.Seasonal influenza would continue to maintain a low level.Sporadic cases of human infection with animal influenza will continue to be detected.Norovirus disease outbreaks will be at a high level before winter holidays.Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning will reach its annual peak in January.Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19.General attentions should be paid to the seasonal influenza,human infection with animal influenza,norovirus disease and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.