1928~1929年河南旱灾时空范围与社会影响过程重建

RECONSTRUCTION OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCOPE AND SOCIAL INFLUENCE PROCESS OF HENAN DROUGHT FROM 1928 TO 1929

过去全球变化(PAGES)重要的研究主题之一是过去人类-气候-生态系统在多时空尺度上的相互作用机制与过程。加强对历史时期极端气候事件的影响研究,有助于加深对极端事件机理的理解,并更好地适应未来气候变化。本文通过整理报刊信息,重建1928~1929年极端干旱事件在河南省的影响时空范围;并运用网络分析法探讨了旱灾对人类社会的影响过程,分析影响传递过程中的关键节点。研究结果表明:1)1928年春夏季影响面积广(涉及豫西、豫北、豫中、豫东等99个县),1928年秋冬季影响面积收缩(最后集中在豫西为主的27县),1929年春季影响面积再次变广(包括豫西、豫南47县),1929年夏秋季影响面积收缩(仅灵宝县、南阳县)。2)本次极端干旱事件的社会影响过程中,自然环境-资源系统与支撑系统之间存在明显的逐级传递特征,而支撑系统与人文系统之间表现出级联效应;天气异常及其影响事件共有22个类型,其中的13类(旱、粮食生产受损/受阻、基础设施损毁损毁、生产资料损毁损毁、人口迁移、食物替代、饥民生理健康问题、粮价增加、财产损失、匪乱、饥民流浪、兵灾和战争、阶级破产)是本次极端干旱事件影响社会的核心事件;在整个网络中,粮食生产受损/受阻、食物替代、财产损失、匪乱,4个事件是系统之间相互沟通的最关键节点。

The research on the impact of extreme climate events in historical periods is helpful to deepen the understanding of the mechanism of extreme events and better adapt to future climate change.Compared to other proxy data,the modern newspapers appeared in China in the 19 th century are advantageous in high temporal resolution and high reliability.Based on the existing newspaper clipping,we extracted all the reports about extreme drought events in Henan from 1928 to 1930,and obtained 61 reports.The earliest report appeared in September1928,and the latest one published in September 1930,covering a period of 24 months.On this basis,we reconstructed the time and space range of this drought in Henan Province,and discussed the process of drought’s influence on human society by using network analysis method,and analyzed the key nodes in the process of impact transmission.The results showed that:(1)From 1928 to 1929,the spatial distribution pattern of drought in Henan province was:expansion-contraction-expansion-contraction.In spring and summer of 1928,the affected area was wide and concentrated in western,northern,central and Eastern Henan;in autumn and winter of 1928,the affected area contracted and concentrated in western Henan;in spring of 1929,the affected area became wide again and concentrated in western and southern Henan;in the summer of 1929,the drought affected area contracted around Lingbao County(Western Henan)and Nanyang County(Southern Henan),and only Lingbao and Nanyang counties reported drought in autumn.(2)There are 22 types of weather anomalies and their impact events,13 of which are the core events of this extreme drought event(drought,damaged/disrupted food production,damage to infrastructure,damage to means of production,migration,food substitution,physical health problems of the hungry(including deaths),increased food prices,property losses,banditry,homelessness among the hungry,war,class bankruptcy).In the whole network,the four events of damaged/disrupted food production,food substitution,property losses and banditry are the most critical nodes in the communication between the systems.In the process of social impact of this extreme drought event,the results of network analysis showed that the natural environmentresource system mainly affected the supporting system and then affected other subsystems of the human system,which had the characteristics of step-by-step transmission;however,there was a strong cascade effect between other subsystems,that was,each element was causal with each other,and there was no clear main line of impact.