中国资源型城市转型对劳动力需求的影响

The effect of transformation of resource-based cities on labor demand in China

资源部门的自强机制导致城市人力资本集中于资源型产业,进而造成资源型城市中低技能劳动者增多,使新兴产业对当地劳动力需求下降。因此,资源型城市转型可能会导致城市面临失业问题。使用倾向得分匹配与双重差分结合的方法,探讨了《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013—2020年)》对资源型城市劳动力需求的影响。为验证该影响的内在机制,分别根据教育水平和制造业占比对城市进行三重差分回归。结果显示:城市转型导致资源型城市劳动力需求下降6.9%;成熟型和衰退型城市的转型是导致需求下降的主要原因;检验发现,教育水平更高或制造业占比更高的城市受转型政策的影响更小,从而可以从侧面证明资源部门的自强机制使新兴产业对当地劳动力需求下降。

Resource industries can lead to over concentration of human capital within resource cities.Emerging industries thus can only find low-skilled employees when entering the city,which may cause labor demand reduction.This study examines whether transformation of resource-based cities affects labor demand.We investigate the impacts of National Plan for Sustainable Development of Resource-based Cities(2013-2020)in China.The impacts of this plan are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach.We also use DDD method based on the cities'education level and rate of manufacture industry to find out the mechanism of the effects.We found that the labor demand of resource-based cities decreased by 6.9%due to urban transformation.Our estimation results also reveal that mature cities and declining cities have the main impacts on labor demand reduction.And the results show that cities with high education level and high rate of manufacture industry are less affected,which proves that the self-improvement mechanism of the resource sectors reduces the local labor demand.