全球清洁能源发展现状与趋势分析

Status and Trends Analysis of Global Clean Energies

一次能源尤其是化石能源的大规模开发利用,导致环境破坏越来越严重,对人类生活造成了极大的负面影响,因此,清洁能源的开发利用引起全球的广泛重视,美国、日本、欧盟、中国、印度等国家或地区从20世纪开始开展清洁能源的开发利用工作。本文在前人的研究基础上,首先明确了清洁能源的概念和能源种类。其次,从投资、装机容量和消费变化等方面深入分析了全球清洁能源的发展现状,采用趋势预测法预测了未来清洁能源开发利用成本,与2019年相比,2050年聚光太阳能发电成本下降超过七成,陆上风电、海上风电、地热下降超过六成,光伏发电下降接近六成,水电上升超过一成;运用生长曲线预测模型(SGompertz曲线模型)预测了未来清洁能源需求趋势,2030年全球清洁能源需求约为30.5×10^(8) t油当量,约占全球一次能源需求的18%;2050年全球清洁能源需求57×10^(8) t油当量,约占全球一次能源需求的30%。最后,得出了清洁能源的利用程度和碳排放量呈负相关关系、中国处于全球清洁能源发展的领先地位和清洁能源将改变全球一次能源格局等结论。

The environmental damage caused by the large-scale development and utilization of primary energies,especially fossil energy,is more and more serious,which has exerted a great negative impact on human lives.Therefore,the development and utilization of clean energies have attracted widespread attention in the world.The United States,Japan,the European Union,China,India and other countries or regions have started the development and utilization of clean energies since the 20th century.On the basis of previous studies,this paper makes clear that clean energies refer to the energies that have little impact on the environment and little risk of environmental pollution in the production and consumption and there is no migration of elements such as C,N and S that may cause pollution in the utilization,such as wind energy,water energy,solar energy,geothermal energy,and marine energy.With the increasing awareness of global environmental protection,countries are increasing investment on clean energies.Clean energies haves become an important source of optimizing global energy consumption structure,especially since the 21st century,and the rapid development of clean energies has effectively relieved the pressure of global primary energy demand growth on fossil energy to a certain extent;for example,more than one fifth of the global increment of primary energy consumption in 2018 came from clean energies.The development of clean energies has changed from"the dominance"of hydropower to"three key parts"of wind,solar energy and hydropower.In 2000,hydropower accounted for 69.1%,wind energy 15.2%,geothermal energy 15.4%and solar energy only 0.3%.In 2018,the incremental structure of clean energy consumption changed significantly, with wind energy possessed the highest proportion of 35.1%, solar energypossessed 32.4%, hydropower 31.6%, and geothermal energy 0.9%.Trend prediction method predicts that, compared with things of 2019, in 2050, the installed cost ofconcentrating solar power will decrease by more than 70%, onshore wind, offshore wind and geothermal energywill decrease by more than 60%, and solar photovoltaics will decrease by nearly 60%, while hydropower willincrease by more than 10%. The growth curve prediction method (SGompertz curve model) predicts that the totalglobal clean energy demand is about 3050 mtoe in 2030, accounting for about 18% of the global primary energydemand, including 640 mtoe solar energy, 920 mtoe wind energy, 280 mtoe geothermal energy and 1210 mtoehydropower. In 2050, the total global clean energy demand is about 5700 mtoe, accounting for about 30% of theglobal primary energy demand, including 1200 mtoe solar energy, 2200 mtoe wind energy, 700 mtoe geothermalenergy and 16mtoe hydropower.According to the analysis, the following conclusions have been drawn: First, the utilization of clean energieshas a negative correlation with carbon emissions, that is to say, the higher the utilization of clean energy, thegreater the contribution to carbon dioxide emission reduction;on the contrary, the lower the utilization of cleanenergy, the smaller the contribution to carbon dioxide emission reduction. Therefore, in order to achieve the goalof carbon dioxide emission reduction, countries should pay more attention to the development of clean energy.Second, China is at the leading level of global clean energy development. China's clean energy consumption hasgrown rapidly. Since 2004, China has become the largest clean energy consumer in the world. In 2018, Chinaconsumed 27.5% of the global clean energies, which was higher than the sum of the United States, India, Russiaand Japan, thus becoming the main force of global emission reduction. Third, the use of clean energy will changethe global pattern of primary energies. The global energy consumption pattern is basically the pattern of "threekey parts" of fossil energy coal, oil and natural gas, and clean energy and nuclear energy are in the initial stage.With the rapid development of clean energies, clean energies will account for about 20% of the primary energydemand in 2030, about 30% in 2050, or even higher. The global primary energy demand pattern will become "fourkey parts" of coal, oil, natural gas, and clean energy.