新冠疫情下全球经济发展与价格走势——基于历史的比较分析

Prediction of global economic development and price operation after the COVID-19——Comparative analysis based on history

疫后全球经济、贸易与物价的运行方向,是国家宏观经济管理关切的重要问题。历史总是不断的重复,但历史的发展又总是充满偶然性。纵观近50年来全球经贸发展历程,新冠肺炎疫情是人类历史中非常重要的"偶然"之一,导致了全球经济出现明显下滑、贸易大幅萎缩、物价水平大幅波动。通过研究近50年来历次全球经济衰退、经济危机发生之后的全球经济、贸易、物价发展变化的规律,同时总结了全球经济发展的规律、贸易发展历程以及大宗商品物价的发展态势,对疫后全球经济、贸易与物价的运行方向作出了判断,在此基础上提出相关政策建议。

After the COVID-19 the direction of the global economy, trade and prices is an important issue of national macroeconomic management. History is always repeated, but the development of history is always full of chances. Throughout the history of global economic and trade development in the past 50 years,the COVID-19 epidemic is one of the most important "incidents" in human history. It has led to a significant decline in the global economy, a sharp decline in trade, and large fluctuations in price levels. This paper studies the laws of global economic, trade, and price development after the global economic recession and economic crisis in the past 50 years, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.