我国消费价格指数对商业健康保险保费收入的影响研究

Research on the relationship between consumer price index and commercial health insurance in China

近年来,我国商业健康保险业务规模快速增长。本文基于我国保险市场2008-2020年7月的月度时间序列数据,运用VAR模型和门限回归模型,探究消费价格指数对商业健康保险保费收入的影响。实证结果显示:第一,消费价格指数的变动会引起健康险保费收入增长的变动,但是健康险保费收入增长的变动不会引起价格指数的变动;通过脉冲响应分析发现,短期内价格指数上升会促进健康险保费收入的增长。但是,如果价格指数持续上升又会转而阻碍健康险保费收入的增长。第二,消费价格指数对健康险保费收入增速波动性的贡献率不断上升,但始终低于健康险保费收入自身增长的贡献率。第三,健康险保费收入增长对居民消费价格指数的反应是非对称的,以104.5为门限值。小于门限值时,物价温和的上升可以促进保费收入的增长,健康险市场应抓住有利时机扩大内需。但是,当指数高于门限值时,可能冲击健康险行业,这时健康险行业要及时采取止损措施。

Based on the monthly time series data of China’s insurance market from 2008 to 2020, this paper uses VAR model and threshold regression model to explore the relationship between consumer price index and commercial health insurance market. The empirical results show that: firstly, the change of consumer price index will cause the change of health insurance premium income. Then impulse response analysis shows that the consumer price index CPI and health insurance premium growth index PI present a positive correlation in the short term, while the long-term impact is small. Second, the contribution rate of consumer price index to the growth volatility of health insurance premium is increasing, but it is always less than the contribution rate of health insurance premium growth itself. Thirdly, the response of health insurance premium growth rate to price is asymmetric, and the threshold value is 104.5. When the price is lower than the threshold, the moderate rise of price can promote the rise of premium. The health insurance market should seize the favorable opportunity to expand domestic demand.However, when the index is higher than the threshold value, it may impact the health insurance industry. At this time, the health insurance industry should take timely stop loss measures.