铁路退票险费率计算模型构建研究

Research on Calculation Model of Rate for Railway Refund Insurance

旅客在办理退票业务时铁路收取阶梯退票费,所退票额可能无法再次售出,对旅客和铁路双方都存在潜在风险。铁路退票险是一种较好的保险服务,能够分担旅客退票和铁路客运资源在合同约定履行期间内的违约风险,创新客运主营业务服务。借鉴交通运输行业的非寿险费率计算方法,构建铁路退票险费率计算模型。通过分析退票业务,识别退票险影响因素,计算退票险费率,进行退票险知识库闭环管理,研究结果表明依据广义线性模型方法计算的纯保费与传统法差别不大,但可以节省较多的时间,因而使用广义线性模型方法计算铁路退票险费率更为合理有效,有助于加快铁路退票险费率的出台。

In the current railway ticket refund business, when passengers refund the tickets, refund service fees are charged on a hierarchical basis and these tickets may not be sold again. This brings potential risks to both passengers and railways. As a better-balanced service, railway refund insurance innovates passenger transport business, whose purpose is to share the default risk of ticket refund and wasting railway passenger transportation resources agreed in the contract. In this paper, the rates model of refund insurance is constructed, learning from the calculation method of non-life insurance rate in transportation industry, and the influencing factors of refund insurance are identified through analyzing refund business. The refund insurance rates are calculated to facilitate closed-loop management. The results indicate that compared with traditional iterative method, the pure premium obtained through generalized linear model is similar, while saving more time. Therefore, refund insurance rates adopting generalized nonlinear model is reasonable and effective and conductive to promoting the introduction of railway refund insurance rates.