生育激励与个人所得税——理论逻辑与经验论据

Fertility Incentive and Personal Income Tax:Theoretical Logic and Empirical Evidence

中共十九大报告提出要进一步“促进生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接”。在厘清税收激励生育的理论逻辑基础上,运用工资税模型,获取OECD国家对此的经验论据。结果显示,许多国家运用税收政策向有子女家庭提供正向激励,且更注重中低收入家庭。进一步分析发现,通常为符合资格条件的儿童设计相同的或递增的定额税收优惠,甚至为大规模家庭赋予额外优惠;将儿童税收宽免转化为抵免,引进收入限制和可退抵免制;单亲家庭可享受额外优惠,而已婚家庭还通过个人申报纳税、婚姻优惠、家庭申报纳税等多种举措受益。应汲取和借鉴OECD国家的成功经验,逐步构建我国“生育友好型”的税收制度。

In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,it is emphasized to further promote the matching and connection between fertility policies and relevant economic and social policies.Based on the theoretical logic of fertility incentive caused by tax system,a taxing wages model is used to simulate the effects of OECD countries in this paper.It is found that,in many OECD countries,personal income tax(PIT)has a significant positive effect on fertility incentive,especially for the low and middle income families.Further research reveals that the same or increasing quota tax benefits are usually designed for eligible children,and even an additional amount is introduced for large families to get a better fertility incentive;the children tax allowances have been replaced by tax credits with a phase-out and a refundable system;alone parent can enjoy extra tax benefits,while couples can benefit from separate taxation,marital status reliefs or joint taxation.Therefore,PIT system with“friendly fertility”in China should be adopted gradually on the successful experience learned from OECD countries.