子女孩次性别结构与女性再生育——基于孩次性别递进生育率的分析

Number and Sex Composition of Children and the Next Birth:An Analysis Based on Parity and Sex Progression Model

现有子女的孩次性别结构是影响女性再生育的重要因素。使用中国2000年人口普查数据和时期孩次性别递进生育指标对女性生育水平进行了测算。结果显示,女性普遍生育但终身只生育一个孩子的比例很大,基于孩次性别结构的生育行为体现了男孩偏好;城市和镇在生育第一孩时就存在性别选择;第一个孩子是女孩的女性生育二孩的可能性较大,且二孩是男孩的比例显著大于是女孩的比例;第一个孩子是男孩的城市和镇的女性大部分不再生育,而农村女性有很大比例会生育二孩,但几乎不存在性别选择。采用某地区2019年的数据进行补充验证,同样发现:只有一个女孩的女性相比较只有一个男孩的女性生育者生第二孩的可能性要高很多,以上研究发现对当前二孩生育行为具有一定的启示意义。

The number and sex composition of children a woman has are important factors that affected the fertility of women.This present study used the parity and sex progression model,together with the China’s 2000 population census data to analyze China’s fertility.The results showed that,women generally gave birth but a large proportion of women only gave birth to one child throughout their lives.The reproductive behavior reflected the son preference through the parity and sex of children a woman had.There was a certain first-birth sex selection among women in city and town.A large proportion of women continued to give birth after having a girl,and the child born was more likely to be a boy than a girl.While most women in city or town no longer gave birth after having a boy,a large proportion of women in village continued to give birth after having a boy,who had almost no sex selection.This article used data from a certain region in 2019 and that women who have only one girl were much more likely to give birth than women who have only one boy.The analysis can obtain enlightment on the curreat second-child reploductive behavior.