水足迹视角下江西省环鄱阳湖水资源利用评价

Evaluation of water resources utilization of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province from the perspective of water footprint

为掌握鄱阳湖区域水资源利用情况,探索今后环鄱阳湖区水资源利用发展方向,研究了江西省鄱阳湖周边的九江、上饶、南昌、景德镇、抚州、鹰潭6个市的水资源情况,以水足迹视角出发结合水资源评价体系与脱钩评价模型,分别计算了各市各部门的水足迹强度以及整个区域内水资源利用开发情况。结果显示环鄱阳湖区农业水足迹对总水足迹影响最大,总水足迹强度与当地农业发展程度有关;农村人均生活水足迹与灰水足迹较城镇人口更大;环鄱阳湖区人均水足迹由1337.68 m^(3)·人^(-1)上升至1385.72 m^(3)·人^(-1),水资源匮乏度和压力指数分别降低13.9%和12.8%;环鄱阳湖区总体水资源利用水平为中等,开发潜力较为一般;根据“以水定城”预测结果,环鄱阳湖区2020年和2030年,承载人口分别能达到4949.2万人与4663.8万人,预测GDP分别能达到8350.9亿元与16701.9亿元。

In order to grasp the utilization of water resources in the Poyang Lake region and explore the future development direction of water resources utilization in the Poyang Lake area,the water resources in the six cities of Jiujiang,Shangrao,Nanchang,Jingdezhen,Fuzhou and Yingtan around Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province were studied.From the perspective of footprint,combined with the water resources evaluation system and the decoupling evaluation model,the water footprint intensity of each city and department and the utilization and development of water resources in the entire region were calculated.The results showed that the agricultural water footprint in the Poyang Lake area has the greatest impact on the total water footprint,and the intensity of the total water footprint is related to the level of local agricultural development;the rural per capita domestic water footprint and gray water footprint were larger than the urban population;the per capita water footprint in the Poyang Lake area increased from 1337.68 m^(3)/Person rose to 1385.72 m^(3)/person,water scarcity and pressure index decreased by 13.9%and 12.8%,respectively;the overall water resource utilization level in the Poyang Lake area was medium,and the development potential was relatively average;according to the forecast result of“water-based city”,In 2020 and 2030,the carrying population of Poyang Lake district will reach 49.492 million and 46.638 million respectively,and the predicted GDP will reach 835.09 billion yuan and 1670.19 billion yuan respectively.