高等教育普及化发展标准、进程预测与路径选择

Higher Education Popularization:Criteria,Process and Pathways

高等教育普及化发展是一个漫长而充满挑战的过程。衡量普及化发展水平不仅有规模标准,还有公平、制度和质量标准。普及化进程的快慢并不完全由高等教育本身决定,在人口变化、经济发展、教育与高考制度、政策与环境需要等要素影响下,全球高等教育普及化进程呈现三种模式:快速推进模式、中速推进模式和慢速推进模式。未来,我国高等教育的普及化进程必将继续推进。就推进速度而言,比较可取的选择是采取稳健的中速推进模式。若按此模式推进,2030年前后,我国高等教育将进入普及化中级阶段,学生规模需要增加1000万以上。顺利推进高等教育普及化由初级向中高级阶段发展,有关各方须积极作为:扩大受众人群培养更多更好的生源,制定更具包容性的高等教育政策,保障普及化高等教育发展所需资源充足,以开放的心态创新高等教育发展理念。

A long and challenging process,higher education popularization involves the criteria for scale,equity,system,and quality;the progress does not depend merely on higher education itself,but is affected by such factors as demographic changes,economic growth,basic education,the college entrance system,relevant policies,and the demands for the environment. The progress of higher education popularization across the globe falls into three patterns:fast promotion,medium-speed promotion,and slow promotion. China,which will keep pushing forward higher education popularization,can choose one of these patterns,preferably the pattern of medium-speed promotion. According to this pattern,in 2030 or so,China will step into the middle stage of higher education popularization,with an increase of more than 10 million college students to be enrolled. To push higher education popularization to a higher level,the relevant sides need to cultivate more and better upper secondary school students,formulate a more inclusive policy for higher education,provide adequate higher education resources,and create new ideas for the development of higher education with an open mind.