投资职业教育能否促进农村劳动力增收--基于倾向得分匹配(PSM)的反事实估计

Can Investment in Vocational Education Increase the Income of the Rural Labor Force?--A Counterfactual Estimate Based on Propensity Score Matching

投资职业教育能否实现农村劳动力增收是制定职业教育政策的重要参考。以2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的农村数据为依据,运用倾向得分匹配(PSM)的反事实估计与拓展后的明瑟方程,探究职业教育促进农村劳动力增收的效度。结果表明,职业教育在一定程度上承担了促进农村劳动力增收的职能;中等职业教育有效促进了农村劳动力增收,但相对收益的边际回报率逐渐降低;高等教育阶段投资高等职业教育对于农村劳动力增收的效益普遍低于大学本科教育;职业教育培育的农村劳动力与就业市场需求更吻合。因此,国家要通过提高职业教育对农村地区受教育者的吸引力、巩固中等职业教育的基础性地位、合理布局高等职业教育、发挥职业教育与劳动力市场有效衔接优势等措施,来达致职业教育促进农村劳动力增收的目的。

Whether investment in vocational education can increase the income of the rural labor force is an important reference for the formulation of vocational education policies. Based on the rural data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2018,a counterfactual estimate based on propensity score matching(PSM),and the expanded Mincer equation,this study aims to explore the validity of vocational education in the increase of the income of the rural labor force. The results show the following:To a certain extent,vocational education has performed the function of increasing the income of the rural labor force;secondary vocational education has effectively helped increase the income of the rural labor force,but the marginal rate of returns of relative income has gradually declined;the benefit from the investment in general higher education outweighs that from the investment in higher vocational education;and the rural labor force trained through vocational education is more compatible with the demands of the job market. Therefore,to increase the income of the rural labor force through vocational education,the state government needs to attract more rural students through vocational education,consolidate the basic status of secondary vocational education,rationally lay out higher vocational education,and present the advantages of vocational education in its effective connection with the labor market.