再度审视和重新估算中美贸易失衡

Surveying Repeatedly and Recalculating China-US Trade Imbalance

美中贸易逆差一定程度成为中美贸易关系的“绊脚石”,美方据此频频向中国施压并引发贸易纠纷和摩擦。通过分析中美货物贸易、服务贸易以及相互投资发展状况,多维度统筹考虑两国统计口径差异、国际收支平衡表反映的跨境服务贸易、外国附属机构提供的服务和外国附属机构的货物本地销售,分四个步骤重新估算美中贸易差额,得出以下结论:第一,中美两国存在货物和服务贸易的双失衡,但中美整体贸易基本是平衡的;第二,美国对华投资产生的贸易替代效应,有可能最终逆转中美贸易失衡的方向。

China-US trade relationship has become the essential part of the world economic development process.Meanwhile,US-China trade deficit has been regarded as"stumbling stock"to China-US trade relationship in some degree.In view of this,the United States imposed great pressure on China frequently and instigated trade disputes and frictions.By analyzing the development of Sino US trade in goods,services and mutual investment,and considering the differences in statistical caliber between the two countries,the cross-border trade in services reflected in the balance of payments,the services provided by foreign subsidiaries and the local sales of goods by foreign subsidiaries,the trade balance between the United States and China is reevaluated in four steps.The following conclusions are drawn:Firstly,the balance of trade between China and the United States;Secondly,the trade substitution effect of US investment in China may eventually reverse the direction of Sino US trade imbalance.