基于离散选择模型的票房预测研究

Research on Box Office Forecast Based on Discrete Choice Model

该文基于随机性原则抽取了1205个中国大陆电影市场2014年至2019年的电影数据作为样本,使用离散选择模型对票房进行预测。最终得到:IP、电影质量得分、票价、演员得分、3D放映技术、地区、电影种类、档期、电影时长对票房的影响显著。通过模型的稳健性检验和预测效果两方面证明模型的估计结果是可靠,精确的。根据实证结果,文章为电影制片方面提供一些可行性建议。

Based on the principle of randomness,the paper selects 1205 Chinese mainland movie market data from 2014 to 2019 as samples,and uses discrete choice model to predict box office.The final results are as follows:IP,movie quality score,ticket price,actor score,3D projection technology,region,movie type,schedule and movie duration have a significant impact on box office.It is proved that the estimation result of the model is reliable and accurate through two aspects of the model’s robustness test and the prediction effect.According to the empirical results,this paper provides some feasible suggestions for film production.