中国农业经济重心和农业劳动力重心时空演变及耦合关系研究

Research on the Space-time Evolvement and Coupling Relationship of the Gravity Center of China’s Agriculture Economy and Its Agriculture Labor

利用重心模型对我国31个省(市、自治区)自1978-2017年的农业经济重心与农业劳动力重心的时空演变及其耦合关系进行研究,结论如下,农业经济重心呈现相对稳定的渐进式变化,总体上向西偏南方向移动,东西方向移动距离大于南北方向移动距离;农业劳动力重心的空间移动范围也较为稳定,总体上向西偏北方向移动,主要表现为东西方向移动距离的扩大;改革开放以来,农业经济—劳动力重心的耦合关系表现为在空间距离上基本围绕180 km左右波动,农业劳动力重心的移动影响着农业经济重心的变化,在时间上有滞后性,推测未来一定时期农业经济重心存在向西北方向移动的趋势。最后针对相关问题进行讨论。

Based on the application of gravity center model,this paper research on the space-time evolvement and coupling relationship of the gravity center of agriculture economy and its agriculture labor of 31 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)in China from 1978 to 2017,the conclusions are as follows,the gravity center of agriculture economy exhibited a relatively stable and gradual change,generally moved to the southwest,and the movement distance in the east-west direction is larger than in the north-south direction;the spatial movement range of the gravity center of agriculture labor is also relatively stable,generally moved to the northwest,the main manifestation in the expansion of the movement distance in the east-west direction;since the reform and opening-up,the coupling relationship between the gravity center of agriculture economy and labor fluctuates around 180 km in spatial distance,the shift of gravity center of agriculture labor affects the change of gravity center of agriculture economy,and there is a lag in time,it is speculated that the gravity center of agriculture economy will move to the northwest in the future.Finally,the related problems are discussed.