住宅地价与户籍人口相关性研究——以西安地区为例

Research on the Correlation between Residential Land Price and Household Registration Population--A Case Study of Xi’an Region

住宅用地的供应和价格与民生息息相关,政府通过合理政策进行协调住宅用地与户籍人口之间的关系不仅有利于土地市场的稳定,还直接关系到地区的经济发展和社会稳定。基于此,通过采用2001-2019年西安地区住宅地价和户籍人口数量的数据,运用地价指数法、年期插值法和二次指数平滑法对2020-2024年住宅地价和户籍人口进行预测,并分别对两个时间段的住宅地价与户籍人口数量进行相关性分析。结果显示,西安地区未来五年住宅地价和户籍人口平均涨幅为4.05%、4.12%,均呈稳定上升的趋势;2001-2019年和2020-2024年西安地区住宅地价与户籍人口的相关系数分别为0.971和0.998,正相关性进一步显著加强。这意味着,控制住宅用地的上涨就要协调土地与人口之间的关系。住宅用地面积有限,在人口对住房需求日益增长的情况下,政府在有序扩大城区面积的同时,也应避免人口的过快增长,防止住宅地价的过快上涨。同时,应在目前宏观调控政策效应已显现的基础上,继续根据地区实际情况,加大保障性住房的建设,以抑制住宅地价的过快上涨。

Based on the residential land price and the registered population in Xi’an region from 2001 to 2019,the residential land price from 2020 to 2024 was predicted when methods of the land price index and the annual interpolation were adopted,while the registered population from 2020 to 2024 was predicted using exponential smoothing method.Simutaneously,their corelationship during two periods were analyzed.Results show that the average growth rate of the residential land prices and the registered population in Xi’an region for the next five years is 4.05%and4.12%,respectively,keeping a steady upward trend.The correlation coefficient between them in the year of 2001-2019 and2020-2024 are 0.971 and 0.998,and a positive corelationship is further strengthened.The research provides a reference for the macro-control of residential land prices,reasonable allocation of residential land,and coordination of the relationship between residential land prices and population in Xi’an region,as well as a methodology for related research.