中国三种常见蒿属植物潜在地理分布及其主导气候因子

Potential geographical distribution and the dominant climatic factors of three common Artemisia species in China

裂叶蒿(Artemisia tanacetifolia)、大籽蒿(Artemisia sieversiana)和艾(Artemisia argyi)是我国常见的蒿属(Artemisia)植物,其分布区域遍布全国。本文利用MaxEnt模型预测3种蒿属植物在当前气候条件以及未来两种气候情景下的潜在分布区。采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)检验模型精度。训练数据和测试数据的AUC值均在0.8以上,表明预测结果可靠性良好。在当前的气候条件下,裂叶蒿最适分布区主要为黄土高原、内蒙古高原和东北平原;大籽蒿的最适分布区为西藏南部谷地、横断山地区、黄土高原、内蒙古高原和东北平原;艾的最适分布区有两个,一个位于台湾岛南部,另一个为大巴山、巫山、云贵高原北部、黄土高原和东北平原南部区域。2070年RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下,裂叶蒿及大籽蒿的高适宜区面积减小,艾的最适分布区面积增加。Jackknife检验结果表明,年均降水量是预测裂叶蒿分布最有效的气候因子,5月降水是预测大籽蒿分布的最显著的气候因子,8月水汽压对艾的影响最大。本研究结果为蒿属植物资源的合理利用提供了科学依据。

Artemisia tanacetifolia,A. sieversiana and A. argyi are three common Artemisia species distributed over China. We used MaxEnt model with ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve) for accuracy test to predict the potential distribution of those three Artemisia species under current climate and two future scenarios. The AUC(area under curve values of both training and testing data were above 0.8,indicating good reliability of the prediction. Under the present climatic condition,the areas with the highest occurrence probability of A. tanacetifolia were mainly distributed in Loess Plateau,Inner Mongolian Plateau,and Northeast China Plain. The most suitable areas of A. sieversiana were distributed in southern Tibet valley,Hengduan Mountains area,Loess Plateau,Inner Mongolian Plateau,and Northeast China Plain. There are two optimal distribution areas of A. argyi: one in the south of Taiwan Island and another consisting of Dabashan Mountain,Wushan Mountain,northern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,Loess Plateau and southern Northeast China Plain. Under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2070,the areas of high suitability of A. tanacetifolia and A. sieversiana will decrease but the optimum distribution area of A. argyi will increase. Results of the Jackknife test showed that mean annual precipitation was the most effective climatic factor in predicting A. tanacetifolia’s distribution,May precipitation was the most significant factor for A. sieversiana,and August water vapor pressure was the most influencing factor for A. argyi. Our results provide scientific basis for the rational utilization of Artemisia species.