城市人力资本投资、服务业结构与产业结构高级化

Human Capital Investment,Tertiary Structure Advancing and Industrial Structure Upgrading of Metropolis

当前,从人力资本投资核心要素视角探究我国服务业结构、产业结构高级化之间的传导机制及促进机制,对于加快构建我国现代化产业体系具有重要意义。文章在构建新型城市人力资本投资、服务业高级化、产业结构高级化等指标基础上,手动搜集整理了1996—2018年36个大城市的面板数据,构建PVAR模型,运用系统GMM方法进行实证检验。结果发现,从全国来看,城市人力资本投资对产业结构高级化的影响显著为正;受城市财政收支平衡影响,增加当年城市人力资本投资量会影响下年投资量,受到服务业结构高级化和产业结构高级化的中介机制影响;服务业结构高级化尚未进入自我提升的发展路径,与全国服务业结构升级相对滞后的现状一致。区域之间存在显著异质性,东部地区产业结构高级化对服务业结构高级化的影响显著为正,产业间融合互动较强的中西部地区产业结构高级化进入自我提升路径,初步形成较强的内生驱动力,这得到各区域研发投入数据变化规律的有力支撑。

It is of great significance to accelerate the construction of modern industrial system by exploring the lagging phenomenon of industry transformation especially the tertiary structure upgrading in the era of service economy.On the basis of systematic construction of the indicators of urban human capital investment,the tertiary structure upgrading,and the optimization of the industrial structure,this paper manually collects and sorts the panel data of 36 China’s metropolises from 1996 to 2018 the paper,and then builds the PVAR model to conduct an empirical analysis by using the GMM-Style method for test.It is found that the impact of urban human capital investment on the upgrading of industry structure is significantly positive;increasing the amount of urban human capital investment this year affects the quantity of next year,which is influenced by the intermediary mechanism of the tertiary structure advancement and the industry structure upgrading;the tertiary structure has not entered the path of self-development,which is consistent with the status quo of the whole country.There is significant heterogeneity among regions.The influence of the upgrading of industry structure on the upgrading tertiary structure is significantly positive,and it is strong of the integration and interaction interindustry in eastern regions;the upgrading of industry structure is entering the path of self-improvement,and has formed a strong endogenous impetus initially in central and western regions,which is supported by law of R&D investment data of each region.