中韩FTA实施效果和升级谈判——基于ARMA模型的分析

The Implementation and Upgrade Negotiations of the China-ROK FTA--An Analysis Based on ARMA Model

2015年6月1日《中韩自由贸易协定》正式签署以来,为东北亚国家进一步开展经济合作奠定了基础。随着服务贸易在中韩两国经济发展中所占权重增大,《中韩自由贸易协定》在运行四年后有必要实施升级谈判,主要涉及服务贸易和投资协定。本文首先通过自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA model)对《中韩自由贸易协定》实施的效果进行了分析,发现《中韩自由贸易协定》将中国对韩国出口额占中国总出口额的比重提高了0.3个百分点,但对其他的进出口占比没有显著的影响。为了更好地促进中韩经济的深度合作,本文梳理了《中韩自由贸易协定》升级谈判的过程和难点,从现实意义给出了目前推进的方案和对策。

In order to seek new opportunities for economic cooperation and adjust for the development trend of the world economy,China and ROK formally signed the“China-ROK Free Trade Agreement”on June 1st,2015.This paper analyzes the effect of China-ROK FTA implementation through the autoregressive moving average model(ARMA model)and finds that the China-ROK FTA has increased the ratio of China's exports to ROK to China's total export value by 0.3%.However,the agreement does not yet have any significant impact on other import and export ratios.As the world's second largest economy,China's exports of goods have ranked first in the world,but service trade has always been lackluster and lagging behind.With the increasing weight of service trade in economic development,the China-ROK FTA has implemented upgrade negotiations after four years of operation,mainly involving service trade and investment agreements.By combing the process and difficulties of the China-ROK FTA upgrade negotiations,this paper provides practical advice on the current matter.