攀升全球价值链何以“稳出口”:机理与实证

Can GVC Upgrading Help to "Stabilize Exports":Mechanism and Empirical Evidence

当前面临国内国际环境深刻变化,中国出口贸易发展面临严峻挑战和压力,而具有结构性调整的"攀升全球价值链中高端"是否会带来结构性减速,从而进一步加大出口贸易下行压力,成为理论和实践部门关注的重要课题。通过理论分析认为,无论是从附加值创造能力角度看,还是"固链"从而稳定出口贸易产业之根角度看,全球价值链中高端优势都要显著强于中低端,即攀升全球价值链中高端本质上更加有助于"稳出口"。进一步利用中国制造业企业层面的微观数据,计量检验结果证实了上述理论预期。因此,新形势下努力攀升全球价值链中高端,不仅有助于改善分工地位和提高开放效益,对于缓解当前出口面临增速下滑压力也有重要政策意涵。

At present, the domestic and international environment is undergoing profound changes, and China’ s export trade is facing severe challenges and pressures. Whether"climbing the middle end and high end of global value chain( GVC) " with structural adjustment will bring about structural slowdown and further increase the downward pressure on export trade becomes an important issue for theoretical and practical departments. The theoretical analysis of this paper holds that whether from the perspective of value-added creation ability or from the perspective of "solid chain" to stabilize the export trade industry, the advantages of the middle end and high end of GVC are all significantly stronger than those of the middle end and low end, that is, climbing the middle end and high end of GVC is essentially more conducive to "stabilizing exports". By further using the micro data of China’s manufacturing enterprises, the econometric test results confirm the above theoretical expectations. Therefore,striving to climb the middle end and high end of GVC in the new situation will not only help to improve the position of division of labor and increase the efficiency of opening up, but also have important policy implications for alleviating the current downward pressure on export growth.