“一带一路”沿线国家投资便利化对中国对外直接投资的影响:理论与经验证据

The Impact of Investment Facilitation of the Countries Along the Belt and Road on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Theory and Empirical Evidence

文章通过构建投资便利化评价指标体系,运用熵值法定量测度"一带一路"沿线国家的投资便利化水平,并基于拓展引力模型实证检验其对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。研究发现:"一带一路"沿线国家投资便利化建设能够显著促进中国OFDI增长,其中制度质量改善对中国OFDI的促进作用最大。异质性分析表明,亚非地区、中等收入水平、资源禀赋欠丰富、市场潜力大以及与中国投资合作信任度高的沿线国家通过推进投资便利化建设,对中国OFDI的促进作用更明显。机制检验表明,沿线各国推进投资便利化建设,可以通过削减投资成本、提高投资效率以及降低投资风险等渠道对中国OFDI产生显著正向影响。最后聚焦行业差异的分析表明,沿线国家投资便利化建设能显著促进中国制造业和服务业OFDI扩展边际的提高,且对后者的促进作用更大。

By constructing an investment facilitation evaluation index system, this paper uses the entropy method to quantitatively measure the level of investment facilitation of the countries along the Belt and Road( B&R), and empirically tests its impact on China’ s outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) based on the extended gravity model. The research results show that the investment facilitation construction of the countries along B&R can significantly promote the growth of China’s OFDI, and the improvement of institution quality has the greatest promotion effect on China’s OFDI. The analysis of heterogeneity reveals that for the countries along B&R which are in Asia and Africa, with middle-income levels, less abundant resource endowment, great market potential, and high trust in investment cooperation with China, the promotion effect of investment facilitation on China’s OFDI is more obvious.The mechanism test indicates that the promotion of investment facilitation construction in the countries along B&R can exert a significant positive impact on China’ s OFDI through the channels such as reducing investment costs, increasing investment efficiency and lowering investment risks. Finally, the analysis focusing on industry differences shows that the investment facilitation construction of the countries along B&R can significantly improve the extensive margin of OFDI in the manufacturing and service industries of China, and it plays a greater role in promoting the latter.