政府科技经费投入、研发规模与高校基础研究科研产出的关系——基于省际面板数据的门槛回归分析

The Relationship Between Government Investment in Science and Technology,R&D Personnel Scale and Output of Basic Research in Universities——Threshold Regression Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

高等院校是基础研究工作的重要载体,运用Hansen面板门槛模型,以政府科研投入强度和人均政府投入科技经费为门槛变量,基于2010—2017年省际面板数据探讨政府科技经费投入和研发人员规模对高校基础研究科研产出的非线性影响关系。研究显示,二者对高校基础研究科研产出均存在双重门槛效应;政府投入强度处于中等区间为政府科技经费投入对基础研究产出的最优促进区间;人均科技经费达到一定水平才能充分发挥研发人员规模对基础研究的促进作用;强调资源配置和优化结构比单纯追求投入规模的增加对基础研究活动更有意义。我国整体上处于政府科研投入强度中等偏高、人均科技经费不足的情况,科研资源配置存在优化空间。

Colleges and universities are the important carriers of basic research.Based on the Hansen panel threshold model,taking the intensity of government scientific research input and per capita government investment in science and technology as threshold variables,based on 2010—2017 provincial panel data,it discusses the nonlinear relationship between government science and technology funding and R&D personnel scale on university basic research output.The results are as follows.Both of them have double threshold effect on the output of basic research.The intensity of government input is in the medium range which is the optimal promotion range.Only when the per capita fund reaches a certain level,can the promotion effect of R&D personnel scale on basic research be brought into full play.Resource allocation and optimization structure are more important than pure pursuit of investment.On the whole,China is in the situation of medium and high government investment in scientific research and insufficient per capita funds,so there is room for optimization in the allocation of scientific research resources.