风暴潮漫堤风险分析——以茅洲河为例

Risk Analysis of Flood Inundation by Storm Surge:A Case Study of Maozhou River

重现期风暴潮灾害评估及最大可能风暴潮预测,对风暴潮灾害防灾减灾具有重要意义。本研究在分析实测资料基础上,构建南海潮汐风暴潮耦合模型,对历史上对茅洲河影响较大的风暴潮灾害进行计算分析,在验证准确的基础上对近20 a的106场风暴潮进行计算,得到每年的最大潮位值,采用极值Ⅰ型进行统计分析,得到不同设计频率风暴潮条件下的茅洲河水位,分析其漫堤风险。同时通过设计8个台风行进方向及5个登陆点进行风暴潮增水数值模拟实验,确定最大可能风暴潮移动参数及路径,分析最大可能风暴潮对茅洲河的漫堤风险影响。计算结果可为茅洲河综合治理提供重要技术支撑,同时也为应急管理和海洋、水利防灾减灾部门应急减灾提供决策参考。

The assessment of storm surge disasters during the return period and the prediction of the maximum possible storm surge are of great significance for storm surge disaster prevention and mitigation.In this study,based on the analysis of the measured data,the tidal storm surge coupling model in the South China Sea was constructed to calculate and analyze the storm surge disasters that greatly influenced the Maozhou River throughout the history.On the basis of accurate verification,106 storm surges in recent 20 years were calculated and the annual maximum tide level of each year was obtained.The extreme value type I was used for statistical analysis to obtain the water level of Maozhou River under storm surges with different design frequencies and analyze the risk of flood inundation of Maozhou River.At the same time,through the design of eight typhoon directions and five landing points,the numerical experiment of storm surge was conducted to determine the maximum possible storm surge movement parameters and paths,and to analyze the influence of maximum possible storm surge on the risk of flood inundation of Maozhou River.The calculation results can provide important technical support for the comprehensive management of Maozhou River,and also provide decision-making reference for emergency management and emergency disaster reduction of marine and water conservancy disaster prevention and mitigation departments.