中国和伊朗新型冠状病毒肺炎流行现状及比较分析

Current Situation of COVID-19 in China and Iran and Its Comparative Analysis

新型冠状病毒肺炎(Coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)已造成全球大流行,比较不同国家流行特征是了解该病流行规律的重要内容。为了推进我国提出的"一带一路"倡议,防止传染病跨境传播,并探讨COVID-19流行规律和不同国家传染病研究方法,本研究对中国和伊朗COVID-19流行特征和影响因素进行比较分析。根据世界卫生组织、国家卫生健康委员会及新闻媒体等提供的数据和信息,采用描述流行病学方法和Pearson相关进行分析,结果显示,截至2020年7月31日24时,中国累计报告确诊病例88122例,占全球报告0.50%,位居28位;同期伊朗确诊304204例,占全球1.73%,位居全球第9位。2020年4月22日伊朗报告累计确诊病例数首次超过中国,中国宁夏回族自治区、北京市、上海市、甘肃省、广东省分别报告有伊朗输入病例。COVID-19流行水平和严重程度伊朗高于中国:伊朗的发病率为371/10万、中国6.29/10万;伊朗的死亡率为20/10万、中国0.33/10万;伊朗的治愈率为86.63%、中国为92.18%;病死率两国水平接近;伊朗平均每日新增确诊病例数1395例,中国404例。中国疫情出现拐点的时间较伊朗早,每日新增确诊病例首次出现下降用时25d(伊朗42d)、每日新增治愈超过新增确诊用时31d(伊朗49d)。伊朗疫情在5月后出现持续反弹,2020年6月4日确诊病例数达反弹峰值(3574例),超过前期的3186例,且在多数时间新增治愈人数低于新增确诊人数。中国和伊朗每日新增确诊、新增治愈病例数趋势形态不同,中国新增治愈病例数趋势图整体延后新增确诊病例,而伊朗新增治愈与新增确诊病例数几乎同步。相关分析显示武汉每日新增确诊病例数在划分的两个阶段与预防控制措施得分均呈正相关(相关系数分别为0.44、0.53),而与当时武汉的气象因素平均气压(百帕)、平均2min风速(米/秒)、平均气温(℃)、平均相对湿度(百分率)、日照时数(时)无相关性;伊朗在疫情的第一阶段呈正相关,第二阶段为负相关。COVID-19在中国和伊朗的流行存在差异,对不同国家流行情况进行比较研究,有助于加深对COVID-19全球大流行的认识。

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is pandemic,it is an important issue to compare epidemic situation of it in different countries for understanding this disease.In order to promote the"The Belt and Road Initiative"proposed by China,prevent the spread of infectious diseases across the border,and explore the epidemiology of COVID-19 and the comparative research methods for infectious diseases in different countries,we focused on the comparative analysis on epidemic characteristics and influencing factors of COVID-19 in China and Iran.According to the data and information provided by the World Health Organization,the National Health Commission of China and the news media with descriptive epidemiological methods and Pearson correlation analyses,results indicated that,as of midnight on 31 July,2020,China had reported 88,122 confirmed cases,accounting for 0.50%of the global cases and ranking 28th.In the same period,Iran confirmed 304,204 cases,accounting for 1.73%of the global reported cases,ranking 9th.The cumulative number of confirmed cases reported by Iran on 22 April,2020 surpassed that of China for the first time.In China,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Beijing,Shanghai,Gansu Province,and Guangdong Province reported imported cases from Iran.The prevalence and severity of COVID-19 in Iran were higher than those in China.COVID-19 incidence in Iran was 371/100,000 population,and that of China was 6.29/100,000 population.The mortality rate in Iran was 20/100,000 population,and that of China was 0.33/100,000 population.The prevalence of cure in Iran was 86.60%,and that of China was 92.18%.The case fatality rates of the two countries were similar.The daily average number of newly confirmed cases in Iran was 1,395,and that number in China was404.The turning point of the COVID-19 epidemic in China was earlier than that in Iran.In China,it took 25 days for the first decrease in newly diagnosed cases every day(42 days in Iran),and 31 days for the new daily cured cases to exceed the newly diagnosed cases(49 days in Iran).The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Iran continued to rebound after May.The number of confirmed cases reached a rebound peak(3,574)on 4 June,exceeding the previous 3,186 cases,and the number of newly cured cases was lower than the number of newly confirmed cases in most of the time.The shapes of trends in newly confirmed and cured COVID-19 cases in China were different from those in Iran.The shape of trend of newly cured cases was after that of confirmed in China,however,the shapes of trends of newly cured and confirmed were almost at the same time.The number of newly confirmed cases in Wuhan,China each day was positively correlated with the scores of prevention and control measures in the two divided stages(coefficient of 0.44 and 0.53,respectively)and there was no correlation with average temperature(℃),average relative humidity(percentage),average air pressure(hPa),average wind speed in 2 minutes(m/s)and number of hours of sunshine(hrs).In Iran,it was positively correlated in the first stage of the epidemic,and negatively correlated in the second stage with the scores of prevention and control measures.There are some differences on the COVID-19 epidemic in China and Iran.It is helpful to deeply understand the COVID-19 pandemic by conducting comparative studies among different countries.