张家界市永定区县域耕地保有量预测

Prediction of Cultivated Land Quantity in Yongding District,Zhangjiajie

以张家界市永定区为案例区,在分析区域耕地利用现状、耕地动态变化的基础上,运用粮食安全法、供需平衡法和趋势外推法分别预测2020年、2030年、2035年单一目标约束下的区域远景耕地保有量,再通过层次分析法对预测结果进行权重赋值,从而建立了一个多目标组合模型.利用组合模型对多目标约束下区域远景耕地保有量进行预测,最终得到永定区2020年、2030年、2035年的耕地保有量分别为30423.35,29515.76,29321.66 hm^(2),这说明耕地保有量整体上呈减少趋势但减少速度有所放缓.

Taking Yongding District,Zhangjiajie as an example,based on the analysis of the current characteristics of cultivated land utilization and the dynamic changes,the paper defines three objectives of reserving cultivated land,namely food security,economic security and ecological security.Using the methods of food security method,supply-demand balance and trend extrapolation method to predict the prospective cultivated land quantity under the single target restriction in 2020,2030 and 2035,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)is used to assign the weights of the prediction results,and a multi-objective combined model is established.The total cultivated land tenure in Yongding District in 2020,2030 and 2035 is 30423.35,29515.76,29321.668hm^(2) respectively.This indicates that the overall trend of reduction of cultivated land is decreasing.