走向系统性预测:中国的技术预测历程及实践

Towards Systematic Foresight-History and Practice of Technology Foresight in China

全球正处于快速变迁的时代,科技的发展伴随着社会系统与生态环境的交互作用而日趋复杂化,使得未来的社会、经济及科技的不确定性大为提高,需要用系统性的思维与方法对于未来的发展进行预测与评估。从上世纪80年代开始,中国已经开展了6次规模化国家技术预测,积累了丰富的实践经验,为中国情境下的技术预测研究提供了良好的素材。在回顾中国6次大规模国家技术预测的基础上,从国家创新体系、技术预测工作机制、技术预测体系和方法等不同视角研究分析了中国逐步形成的国家、部门、区域和企业多层次的技术预测体系,以及"愿景、评价、预测、选择、路线图"并贯穿始终的监测预警在内的技术预测流程机制。在此基础上,需要进一步完善国家技术预测体系,优化技术预测方法,形成常态化的国家技术预测研究机制,提升技术预测可靠性和科学性。

The world is in an era of rapid changes. The development of science and technology is becoming more and more complex with the interaction between social system and ecological environment, which greatly increases the uncertainty of future society, economy and technology. It is necessary to develop foresight on the future development with systematic thinking. China has rich experience in foresight research and practice. In the 1980s, China’s foresight research mainly focused on the forecasting of economic and social development. After the 1990s, China began to attach importance to the forecasting of the development of science and technology, mainly in the form of large-scale expert meetings to study the status and role of technology in economic and social development, as well as the selection of key fields. In the 21st century, China’s technology foresight activities, on the one hand, has learned and absorbed the experience of Japan,the United Kingdom and other major countries;on the other hand, according to the needs of China’s technological and economic development, it has summed up experience, and formed a multi-level technology foresight system of the state, sectors, region and enterprise in China. The technology foresight process mechanism of "vision, evaluation, foresight, selection, roadmapping" has also been basically solidified, which provides the basis for national and local governments to form new major scientific and technological innovation strategy judgment, and effectively supports the formulation of science and technology development plan and the implementation of strategic plan. At the national level, the Ministry of Science and Technology has formed a long-term, systematic and continuous mechanism to carry out the national technology foresight with strategic significance, which serves as the direct support for the government’s scientific and technological decision-making departments to formulate science and technology development plans, as well as the basis for organizing and coordinating the scientific and technological activities of various departments. The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Engineering, China Association for Science and Technology, as well as the National Natural Science Foundation of China and other relevant institutions, according to the nature of their own units, on the one hand, focus on medium and long-term technology foresight to provide support for science and technology planning, on the other hand, make full use of expert resources, track and explore the frontier of science and technology for a long time, and put forward suggestions for the selection of key technologies in a timely manner. It is necessary to further improve and optimize the national technology foresight system. First, it is suggested that the Ministry of Science and Technology of China should take the lead and fully integrate the relevant scientific and technological strategic research think tanks such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the China Association of Science and Technology, so as to form a regular national technology foresight research mechanism, and combine the short-term and medium-term planning foresight with the medium and long-term strategic foresight, so as to promote the scientific decision-making of the system. The second is to make full use of emerging technologies such as big data analysis technology and artificial intelligence technology to optimize the technical foresight method system and further improve the reliability and accuracy of technology foresight. The third is to build a research platform for technology foresight, actively encourage and support the development of relevant institutions and think tanks of technology foresight, set up a team of high-quality experts, explore the joint technology foresight work of cross regional cooperation, promote international academic exchanges and cooperation, connect with international standards, and enhance the international influence of foresight results.