气候变化背景下北极潜艇冰区航行风险评估与实验区划

Risk Division of Submarine Navigation under the Sea Ice Affected by Climate Change

在北极增温和冰层消融的气候背景下,北冰洋海区的潜艇活动及其破冰上浮能力成为环北极国家军事实力角逐的象征。根据北极气象水文条件构建了评估潜艇破冰上浮的自然环境风险指标体系,运用TOPSIS方法对北冰洋海域诸月份进行风险评估和实验区划。基于历史资料的评估分析表明,白令海峡和喀拉海区冬季破冰上浮风险系数较低,波弗特海和巴芬湾夏秋季上浮风险较大;基于CMIP6模式产品进行的不同温室气体排放情境下的评估结果表明,边缘海区破冰上浮风险均呈下降趋势,且北极西半球风险普遍高于东半球。研究结果旨在为北冰洋海区潜艇活动或反潜行动的海洋环境保障提供科学依据或决策参考。

In the context of increasing arctic temperature and melting ice,submarine activities in the Arctic Ocean and their ability to break the ice and rise to the surface have become a symbol of the military power competition among the countries around the Arctic.Based on the arctic meteorological and hydrological conditions,this paper constructs a natural environment risk index system to evaluate the submarine ice-breaking and floating,and uses TOPSIS method to carry out risk assessment and experimental division for the months in the Arctic Ocean.The assessment and analysis based on historical data show that the Bering Strait and Kara Sea area has a lower risk coefficient of ice-breaking and floating in winter,while the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay have a higher risk of floating in summer and autumn.Assessment results under different GHG emission scenarios based on CMIP6 model products show that the risk of ice breaking and floating in marginal sea areas is on a downward trend,and the risk in the Western Arctic hemisphere is generally higher than that in the Eastern Hemisphere.The research results are intended to provide scientific basis or decision-making reference for marine environmental protection of submarine activities or anti-submarine operations in the Arctic Ocean.