新冠肺炎疫情的双向冲击、经济影响与中国对策

Two-Way Impact of COVID-19 on the Economy and China's Countermeasures

全球化背景下新冠肺炎疫情大流行会对中国经济产生“双向”冲击,进而产生复杂化影响。对中国经济发展问题研究发现:宏观经济短期下行,长期影响不大;行业层面短期影响差异化,长期需分情况考虑;对外贸易短期影响两极分化,长期基本向好;企业层面短期影响明显,长期具有复杂性。建议宏观层面制定适当宽松的货币政策、积极弹性的财政政策、高效开放的贸易投资政策以及合理的人才培养和就业政策;中观层面主动调整产业结构、促进“互联网”与产业融合、推动区域一体化建设;微观层面增加收入水平、调动消费积极性以及鼓励企业升级转型,多措并举助力中国经济高质量发展。

The outbreak of"Corona Virus Disease 2019"early in 2020 has posed a significant impact on China's economy,and also put severe test forward high quality development strategy in China's new era.The combination of the uncertainties of the international epidemic will cause two-way external shocks to the Chinese economy under the background of globalization,which will complicate and magnify the long-term and short-term impacts of the epidemic.How China applies effective measures and policies to deal with two-way shocks is related to the development trend of China and the global economy.How to minimize the adverse impact is a major practical problem in the later period of the epidemic.This article analyzes the path(a simple model)of the shock's uncertainty,the problems to China's economy and so on.Finally,the paper puts forward policy suggestions from the macro,middle and micro levels to facilitate the high-quality development of China's economy under the two-way impact of the epidemic.