混合验前分布下的小子样装备维修性验证方法

A Small-Sample Test Method for Equipment Maintainability Verification Under Mixed Pre-test Distribution

针对具有多源验前信息的小子样装备维修性指标验证问题,当多源验前信息来自不同总体时,提出了一种混合验前分布下的小子样装备维修性验证方法。结合Bootstrap法,确定了各验前信息的验前分布,改进了基于质量因子的可信度加权融合方法,定义了均值可信度权重因子和样本量可信度权重因子,权重计算结果更加科学合理,推导给出了混合验前分布下的Bayes序贯概率比方法。结合某装甲装备维修性验证试验,对MTTR进行验证,结果表明:所提方法能有效验证装备维修性指标是否符合设计要求。

The study focuses on the verification of the equipment maintainability indexes in small-sample tests with multi-source pre-test information.For the situation when the pre-test information comes from different sourcesan equipment maintainability verification method in small-sample conditions under the mixed pre-test distribution is proposed.The pre-test distribution of each pre-test information is determined by using Bootstrap method.The weighted credibility fusion method based on the quality factors is improvedand the mean credibility weight factor and the sample-size credibility weight factor are defined.The weight calculation results are more scientific and reasonable.A Bayes sequential probability ratio method under the mixed pre-test distribution is derived.The MTTR is verified through the maintainability verification test of an armored equipment.The results show that the proposed method can effectively verify whether the indexes of equipment maintainability can meet the design requirements.